Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia

Mulualem Abera; Mussie Tizazu; Tadese Beyene

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

| Peer-Reviewed

Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia

Mulualem Abera, Mussie Tizazu, Tadese Beyene

Published in International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis (Volume 11, Issue 2)

Received: 6 January 2023 Accepted: 29 March 2023 Published: 10 May 2023

Views: Downloads:

Download PDF

Share This Article

Twitter
Linked In
Facebook

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to explore seasonal impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropospheric circulations affecting Ethiopia during Belg (March–May) rains and associated variability in precipitation. The data used daily rainfall, daily Madden-Julian (MJO) indices, daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal and meridional wind data. The methods used for this study is Correlation and composite analyses are used to establish the association and the relationship between the MJO and rainfall over Ethiopia. A non-significant declining trend in annual rainfall across Ethiopia has been observed over the past three decades trend change per year over by -0.602 mm and P-Value 0.338. The mean length of wet spells 90 days over SNNPR and Southern Oromia Region, and with a least mean length of wet spell is 10 days over Afar, Tigray and western Amhara Region. The results reveals that there is a strong correlation between Ethiopian rainfall and MJO to the west of the region especially around Central and Southeastern parts of the Country. Out of phase (opposite) relationship between the west and the east is also indicating different rain causing mechanisms for the two regions. The rainfall amount also shown to depend on the configuration of the winds at lower and upper levels. Based on composite analysis extreme rainfall events shown to occur during preferential phases of the MJO. Phase 2 coincides with enhanced rainfall, high negative anomaly OLR values as well as westerly and easterly winds configuration at 200hpa and 850hpa while phase 5, 6 and 7 are associated with deficit of rainfall. The inclusion of other modes of variability such as Sea surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as predictors recommended in predicting interaseasonal rainfall.

Published in	International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis (Volume 11, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
Page(s)	37-56
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Ethiopia, Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), Rainfall, OLR, Wind, Wet and Dry Spell, Belg Rainy Season

References

[1]	Amsalu, Aklilu, and Alebachew Adem. "Assessment of climate change-induced hazards, impacts and responses in the southern lowlands of Ethiopia." Forum for Social Studies (FSS), 2009.
[2]	Ayalew D, Tesfaye K, Mamo G, Yitaferu B, Bayu W (2012). Variability of rainfall and its current trend in Amhara region, Ethiopia. Afr. J. Agric.
[3]	Barlow, M., M. Wheeler, B. Lyon, and H. Cullen, 2005: Modulation of daily precipitation over southwest Asia by the Madden–Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 3579–3594.
[4]	Bekele-Biratu, E., Thiaw, W. M., & Korecha, D. (2018). Sub-seasonal variability of the Belg rains in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (7), 2940-2953.
[5]	Belay T (2014). Climate variability and change in Ethiopia: Exploring impacts and adaptation options for cereal production. Production Ecology and Resource Conservation, Wageningen University. Doctoral 16. Wageningen University.
[6]	Black, E., 2005: The relationship between Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature and East African rainfall. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc., 363A, 43–47, doi: 10.1098/rsta.2004.1474.
[7]	Carvalho, L. M. V., C. Jones, and B. Liebmann, 2004: The South Atlantic convergence zone: Intensity, form, persistence, and relationships with intraseasonal to interannual activity and extreme rainfall J. Climate, 17, 88-108, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017,0088:TSACZI.2.0.CO;2.
[8]	Chen, Y., and A. D. Del Genio, 2009: Evaluation of tropical cloud regimes in observations and a general circulation model. Climate Dyn, 32, 355–369, doi: 10.1007/ s00382-008-0386-6.
[9]	Degefu, W., 1987: Some aspects of meteorological droughts in Ethiopia. Drought and Hunger in Africa: Denying Famine a Future, M. H. Glantz, Ed., Cambridge University Press, 23–36.
[10]	Dinku, T., Funk, C., Peterson, P., Maidment, R., Tadesse, T., Gadain, H., & Ceccato, P. (2018). Validation of the CHIRPS satellite rainfall estimates over eastern Africa. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144, 292-312.
[11]	Diro, G. T., Black E., Grimes D. I. F. 2008. Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian Spring rains. Meteorol. Appl., 15: 73–83. doi: 10.1175/MWR3026.1.
[12]	Finney, Declan & Marsham, John & Walker, Dean & Birch, Cathryn & Woodhams, Beth & Jackson, Lawrence & Hardy, Sam. (2019). The effect of westerlies on East African rainfall and the associated role of tropical cyclones and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 146. 10.1002/qj.3698.
[13]	Funk, C, M. D. Dettinger, J. C. Michaelsen, J. P. Verdin, M. E. Brown, M. Barlow, and A. Hoell, 2008: Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 11 081–11 086, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0708196105.
[14]	Funk, Chris & Peterson, Pete & Landsfeld, Martin & Pedreros, Diego & Verdin, James & Shukla, Shraddhanand & Husak, Gregory & Rowland, J. & Harrison, Laura & Hoell, Andrew & Michaelsen, Joel. (2015). The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations - A new environmental record for monitoring extremes. Scientific Data. 2. 150066. 10.1038/sdata.2015.66.
[15]	Gissila, T., Black E., Grimes D. I. F., Slingo J. M. 2004. Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains. Int. J. Climatol., 24: 1345– 1358.
[16]	González-Rouco, J. F., Jiménez, J. L., Quesada, V., & Valero, F. J. J. o. c.(2001). Quality control and homogeneity of precipitation data in the Southwest of Europe. 14 (5), 964-978.
[17]	Hadgu G, Tesfaye K, Mamo G, Kassa B (2013). Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: Analysis of meteorological data and farmers’ perception. Acad. J. Environ. Sci. 1 (8): 159-171.
[18]	Hastenrath, S., 2007: Circulation mechanisms of climate anomalies in East Africa and the equatorial Indian Ocean. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 43, 25–35, doi: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2006.06.002.
[19]	Hendon, H. H., and M. L. Salby, 1994: The life cycle of the Madden– Julian oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2225–2237, doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051, 2225:TLCOTM.2.0.CO;2.
[20]	Indeje, M., and F. H. M. Semazzi, 2000: Relationships between QBO in the lower equatorial stratospheric zonal winds and East African seasonal rainfall. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 73, 227– 244, doi: 10.1007/s007030050075.
[21]	Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471, doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077,0437:TNYRP.2.0.CO;2.
[22]	Karpouzos, Dimitris & Kavalieratou, Sofia & Babajimopoulos, C. (2010). Trend Analysis of Precipitation Data in Pieria Region (Greece). Eur. Water. 30.
[23]	Kassahun B (1987) Weather systems over ethiopia. In: Proceedings of First Tech. Conf. on Meteorological Research in Eastern and Southern Africa. Kenya Meteorological Department: Nairobi, Kenya, pp 53–57.
[24]	Kendall, M. J. C. G., London. (1975). Rank correlation measures. 202, 15.
[25]	Korecha, D., Barnston A. 2007. Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. Mon. Wea. Rev, 135, 2: 628-650.
[26]	Koricha D, Viste E, Sorteberg A (2012). Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia. Theory Appl. Climatol. 112: 535-551.
[27]	Liebmann, B., and C. A. Smith, 1996: Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 1275–1277.
[28]	Madden R, Julian P (1971) Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J Atmos Sci 28: 702–708.
[29]	McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, 1993: The relationship of drought frequency and duration of time scales. Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Jan 17-23, 1993, Anaheim CA, pp. 179-186.
[30]	Messay Abebe, 2006. The Onset, Cessation and Dry Spells of the Small Rainy Season (Belg) of Ethiopia. National Meteorological Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
[31]	Mutai, C. C., and M. N. Ward, 2000: East African rainfall and the tropical circulation/convection on intraseasonal to interannual timescales. J. Climate, 13, 3915–3939, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013,3915:EARATT.2.0.CO;2.
[32]	National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia (NMA) (2007). Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (Napa) Of Ethiopia. The Federal Democratic Republic Of Ethiopia Ministry Of Water Resources National Meteorological Agency. Abebe T, National Meteorological Agency. Addis Ababa.
[33]	Ngongondo, C., Xu, C. Y., Gottschalk, L., &Alemaw, B. (2011). Evaluation of spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall in Malawi: a case of data scarce region. Theoretical and applied climatology, 106 (1-2), 79-93.
[34]	Nicholson. (2014). The predictability of rainfall over the greater Horn of Africa. Part i: Prediction of seasonal rainfall. 15 (3), 1011-1027.
[35]	NMSA, 1996: Climate & Agro Climate Resources of Ethiopia. NMSA Meteorological Research Report Series, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1-137.
[36]	North, Gerald & Bell, Thomas & Cahalan, Robert & Moeng, Fanthune. (1982). Sampling Errors in the Estimation of Empirical Orthogonal Functions. Monthly Weather Review. 110. 10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0699:SEITEO>2.0.CO;2.
[37]	Okoola, R. E. 1999. A diagnostic study of the eastern Africa monsoon circulation during the northern hemisphere spring season. Int. J. Climatol. 19: 143–168.
[38]	Partal, T. and Kahya, E. (2006) Trend Analysis in Turkish Precipitation Data. Hydrological Process, 20, 2011-2026.
[39]	Pohl, B., and P. Camberlin, 2006b: Influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation on East African rainfall: II. March–May season extremes and interannual variability. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 2541– 2558, doi: 10.1256/qj.05.223.
[40]	Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J., & Jaswal, A. K. (2008). Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data. Geophysical research letters, 35 (18). Res. 7 (10): 1475-1486.
[41]	Segele, Z. T, Lamb P. J., Leslie L. M. 2009. Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June–September rainfall. Int. J. Climatol., 29: 1075–1100.
[42]	Segele, Zewdu T., Michael B. Richman, Lance M. Leslie, and Peter J. Lamb. “Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of Ethiopia/Horn of Africa Monsoon. Part II: Statistical Multimodel Ensemble Rainfall Predictions.” Journal of Climate 28, no. 9 (2015): 3511–36. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26195091.
[43]	Seleshi Y, Camberlin P (2006). Recent changes in dry spell and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 83: 181–191 Seleshi Y, Zanke U (2004). Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. Int. J. Climatol. 24 (8): 973–983.
[44]	Sen, P. K. J. J. o. t. A. s. a. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. 63 (324), 1379-1389.
[45]	Viste, E., and A. Sorteberg, 2013: The effect of moisture transport variability on Ethiopian summer precipitation. Int. J. Climatol., 33, 3106–3123, doi: 10.1002/joc.3566.
[46]	Wheeler, M. C., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917–1932, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132,1917:AARMMI.2.0.CO;2.
[47]	Yasunari, T. (1980) A Quasi-Stationary Appearance of the 30 - 40 Day Period in the Cloudiness Fluctuations during the Summer Monsoon over India. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 58, 225-229.

Cite This Article

Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Mulualem Abera, Mussie Tizazu, Tadese Beyene. (2023). Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia. International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis, 11(2), 37-56. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

Copy | Download

ACS Style

Mulualem Abera; Mussie Tizazu; Tadese Beyene. Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia. Int. J. Environ. Monit. Anal. 2023, 11(2), 37-56. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Mulualem Abera, Mussie Tizazu, Tadese Beyene. Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia. Int J Environ Monit Anal. 2023;11(2):37-56. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12,
  author = {Mulualem Abera and Mussie Tizazu and Tadese Beyene},
  title = {Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia},
  journal = {International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis},
  volume = {11},
  number = {2},
  pages = {37-56},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijema.20231102.12},
  abstract = {The main objective of this study is to explore seasonal impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropospheric circulations affecting Ethiopia during Belg (March–May) rains and associated variability in precipitation. The data used daily rainfall, daily Madden-Julian (MJO) indices, daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal and meridional wind data. The methods used for this study is Correlation and composite analyses are used to establish the association and the relationship between the MJO and rainfall over Ethiopia. A non-significant declining trend in annual rainfall across Ethiopia has been observed over the past three decades trend change per year over by -0.602 mm and P-Value 0.338. The mean length of wet spells 90 days over SNNPR and Southern Oromia Region, and with a least mean length of wet spell is 10 days over Afar, Tigray and western Amhara Region. The results reveals that there is a strong correlation between Ethiopian rainfall and MJO to the west of the region especially around Central and Southeastern parts of the Country. Out of phase (opposite) relationship between the west and the east is also indicating different rain causing mechanisms for the two regions. The rainfall amount also shown to depend on the configuration of the winds at lower and upper levels. Based on composite analysis extreme rainfall events shown to occur during preferential phases of the MJO. Phase 2 coincides with enhanced rainfall, high negative anomaly OLR values as well as westerly and easterly winds configuration at 200hpa and 850hpa while phase 5, 6 and 7 are associated with deficit of rainfall. The inclusion of other modes of variability such as Sea surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as predictors recommended in predicting interaseasonal rainfall.},
 year = {2023}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia
AU  - Mulualem Abera
AU  - Mussie Tizazu
AU  - Tadese Beyene
Y1  - 2023/05/10
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
T2  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JF  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JO  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
SP  - 37
EP  - 56
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7667
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
AB  - The main objective of this study is to explore seasonal impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropospheric circulations affecting Ethiopia during Belg (March–May) rains and associated variability in precipitation. The data used daily rainfall, daily Madden-Julian (MJO) indices, daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal and meridional wind data. The methods used for this study is Correlation and composite analyses are used to establish the association and the relationship between the MJO and rainfall over Ethiopia. A non-significant declining trend in annual rainfall across Ethiopia has been observed over the past three decades trend change per year over by -0.602 mm and P-Value 0.338. The mean length of wet spells 90 days over SNNPR and Southern Oromia Region, and with a least mean length of wet spell is 10 days over Afar, Tigray and western Amhara Region. The results reveals that there is a strong correlation between Ethiopian rainfall and MJO to the west of the region especially around Central and Southeastern parts of the Country. Out of phase (opposite) relationship between the west and the east is also indicating different rain causing mechanisms for the two regions. The rainfall amount also shown to depend on the configuration of the winds at lower and upper levels. Based on composite analysis extreme rainfall events shown to occur during preferential phases of the MJO. Phase 2 coincides with enhanced rainfall, high negative anomaly OLR values as well as westerly and easterly winds configuration at 200hpa and 850hpa while phase 5, 6 and 7 are associated with deficit of rainfall. The inclusion of other modes of variability such as Sea surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as predictors recommended in predicting interaseasonal rainfall.
VL  - 11
IS  - 2
ER  -

Copy | Download

Author Information

Mulualem Abera

Meteorological Forecasting Early Waring Research Long-range Weather Forecasting and Drought Monitoring Desk, Ethiopia Meteorological Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Mussie Tizazu

Meteorological Forecasting, Ethiopia Meteorological Institute, Hawassa Meteorological Service Centre, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Tadese Beyene

Meteorology Science Associate Researcher II, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Download PDF

Sections

Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Mulualem Abera, Mussie Tizazu, Tadese Beyene. (2023). Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia. International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis, 11(2), 37-56. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

Copy | Download

ACS Style

Mulualem Abera; Mussie Tizazu; Tadese Beyene. Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia. Int. J. Environ. Monit. Anal. 2023, 11(2), 37-56. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Mulualem Abera, Mussie Tizazu, Tadese Beyene. Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia. Int J Environ Monit Anal. 2023;11(2):37-56. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12,
  author = {Mulualem Abera and Mussie Tizazu and Tadese Beyene},
  title = {Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia},
  journal = {International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis},
  volume = {11},
  number = {2},
  pages = {37-56},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijema.20231102.12},
  abstract = {The main objective of this study is to explore seasonal impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropospheric circulations affecting Ethiopia during Belg (March–May) rains and associated variability in precipitation. The data used daily rainfall, daily Madden-Julian (MJO) indices, daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal and meridional wind data. The methods used for this study is Correlation and composite analyses are used to establish the association and the relationship between the MJO and rainfall over Ethiopia. A non-significant declining trend in annual rainfall across Ethiopia has been observed over the past three decades trend change per year over by -0.602 mm and P-Value 0.338. The mean length of wet spells 90 days over SNNPR and Southern Oromia Region, and with a least mean length of wet spell is 10 days over Afar, Tigray and western Amhara Region. The results reveals that there is a strong correlation between Ethiopian rainfall and MJO to the west of the region especially around Central and Southeastern parts of the Country. Out of phase (opposite) relationship between the west and the east is also indicating different rain causing mechanisms for the two regions. The rainfall amount also shown to depend on the configuration of the winds at lower and upper levels. Based on composite analysis extreme rainfall events shown to occur during preferential phases of the MJO. Phase 2 coincides with enhanced rainfall, high negative anomaly OLR values as well as westerly and easterly winds configuration at 200hpa and 850hpa while phase 5, 6 and 7 are associated with deficit of rainfall. The inclusion of other modes of variability such as Sea surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as predictors recommended in predicting interaseasonal rainfall.},
 year = {2023}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia
AU  - Mulualem Abera
AU  - Mussie Tizazu
AU  - Tadese Beyene
Y1  - 2023/05/10
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
T2  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JF  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JO  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
SP  - 37
EP  - 56
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7667
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
AB  - The main objective of this study is to explore seasonal impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropospheric circulations affecting Ethiopia during Belg (March–May) rains and associated variability in precipitation. The data used daily rainfall, daily Madden-Julian (MJO) indices, daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal and meridional wind data. The methods used for this study is Correlation and composite analyses are used to establish the association and the relationship between the MJO and rainfall over Ethiopia. A non-significant declining trend in annual rainfall across Ethiopia has been observed over the past three decades trend change per year over by -0.602 mm and P-Value 0.338. The mean length of wet spells 90 days over SNNPR and Southern Oromia Region, and with a least mean length of wet spell is 10 days over Afar, Tigray and western Amhara Region. The results reveals that there is a strong correlation between Ethiopian rainfall and MJO to the west of the region especially around Central and Southeastern parts of the Country. Out of phase (opposite) relationship between the west and the east is also indicating different rain causing mechanisms for the two regions. The rainfall amount also shown to depend on the configuration of the winds at lower and upper levels. Based on composite analysis extreme rainfall events shown to occur during preferential phases of the MJO. Phase 2 coincides with enhanced rainfall, high negative anomaly OLR values as well as westerly and easterly winds configuration at 200hpa and 850hpa while phase 5, 6 and 7 are associated with deficit of rainfall. The inclusion of other modes of variability such as Sea surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as predictors recommended in predicting interaseasonal rainfall.
VL  - 11
IS  - 2
ER  -

Copy | Download